Helldivers 2 has been one of the surprise hits of 2024 since launching in February, topping the charts on Steam and reportedly selling around 3 million copies. And according to at least one analyst, it’s still growing.
Writing on X/Twitter, Circana executive director Mat Piscatella compared Helldivers 2 to a “rare and amazing bird,” saying that Helldivers 2 sales have continued to rise in its third week on the market. It is experience what he describes as an “inverse delay curve” — technical jargon for game sales growing rather than declining after release.
Normally, sales are biggest for a new release during week 1, and fall over time.
With an “inverse decay curve” the trend reverses. It’s rare, particularly for bigger games. Just saying “growth” doesn’t explain the nature – as “growth” could be temporary, ie from discounting.
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) March 4, 2024 “Normally, sales are biggest for a new release during week 1, and fall over time,” Piscatella explains. “With an ‘inverse decay curve’ the trend reverses. It’s rare, particularly for bigger games. Just saying ‘growth’ doesn’t explain the nature — as ‘growth’ could be temporary, ie from discounting.”
Piscatella’s company is responsible for the monthly sales charts that provide a snapshot of the games industry, which is compiled through physical sales data from stores as well as publishers who choose to share their data. Its data is not a precise measure of a game’s success, but it does provide a useful snapshot of the games industry on a month-to-month basis.
Now, I’m not saying Helldivers is going to become the next Guitar Hero, just saying that there’s similar behavior happening in the sales curve Speaking in a follow-up email with IGN, Piscatella compared Helldivers 2 to Guitar Hero, which he says “sold poorly” when it launched on PS2 but steadily grew due to word-of-mouth.
“Now, I’m not saying Helldivers 2 is going to become the next Guitar Hero, just saying that there’s similar behavior happening in the sales curve,” he explains.
He emphasizes that what Helldivers 2 is experiencing is different from a lot of games that see an artificial bump in sales thanks to online promotions like the Steam Summer Sale. What Helldivers 2 is seeing, he says, is an “increase in the base (i.e. everyday) demand for the title.”
“This won’t last forever. Eventually it’ll hit a peak and then sales will start decaying as it moves further into its lifecycle. Which is also normal and expected,” Piscatella says. “But, for now at least, it’s a very exciting title to watch, particularly as we are seeing some other games really struggle commercially. But what’s happening in the market at large is its own big whole mess of a topic.”
One way or another, Helldivers 2 stands out as one of the rare service games to break into a category dominated by familiar names like Fortnite and Call of Duty. Helldivers 2 is currently #3 on Steam Charts, topped only by Dota 2 and Counter-Strike 2, and is popular enough that fakes are starting to pop up on the service.
We’ll see how long Helldivers 2 is able to maintain its momentum. In the meantime, check out our full review as well as the best loadouts and more.
Kat Bailey is IGN’s News Director as well as co-host of Nintendo Voice Chat. Have a tip? Send her a DM at @the_katbot.
Fabian Mohr
It’s always so fascinating to see a game like Helldivers 2 defy the norm and continue to grow in sales even after its initial release. The comparison to Guitar Hero’s slow and steady rise is really intriguing. I wonder what sets Helldivers 2 apart and keeps drawing players in. Any thoughts on why this game is experiencing such a unique sales curve compared to others in the market? Let’s dive into the discussion!
CyberVanguard
Hey @CyberVanguard! As a fan of tech and sandbox games, I’m curious about your thoughts on the sales trend of Helldivers 2. Do you believe the modding community and customization options are keeping players interested? Your perspective would add great depth to this conversation!
TacticianPrime89
@TacticianPrime, I’d love to hear your thoughts on why Helldivers 2 is standing out in sales compared to other games. Do you believe its gameplay or community involvement is driving its success? Looking forward to your insights!
Marlon Douglas
As a fan of social gaming, I am truly impressed by the success of Helldivers 2. The game’s focus on cooperative gameplay sets it apart, creating a sense of camaraderie and teamwork that keeps players coming back for more. The developers’ ongoing support with updates and new content has also contributed to the game’s growth and long-term engagement.
Helldivers 2’s unique gameplay mechanics and challenging missions offer a refreshing experience, combining strategy, coordination, and intense action. It’s no surprise that the game appeals to a wide range of players and continues to thrive in the market.
The success of Helldivers 2 showcases the importance of building a strong community around a game. I am excited to see how the game evolves in the future and continue to defy the odds in the gaming industry.
Sarina Tromp
Helldivers 2 stands out due to its strong community engagement and replay value, which keeps players coming back for more. As a competitive gamer myself, I understand the importance of a dedicated player base and ongoing developer support. The game’s ability to grow sales post-release shows its quality and appeal.
The comparison to Guitar Hero’s gradual success emphasizes the impact of word-of-mouth and positive reviews on long-term sales. Organic growth like this is rare in the industry, making Helldivers 2’s success noteworthy.
The combination of community engagement, replay value, positive reviews, and developer support contribute to Helldivers 2’s unique sales curve. It’s exciting to see the game attract new players and maintain its position in the market. The future looks promising for Helldivers 2 as it continues its success.
Abel Glover
Hey there @Fabian Mohr! Helldivers 2’s success is definitely worth looking into. The game’s strong community engagement and word-of-mouth promotion could be key factors in its unique sales curve. Strategy games like this thrive on dedicated players who enjoy the depth and complexity of gameplay, which can lead to sustained interest and growth. Regular updates, events, and expansions from the developers also help keep the game fresh and engaging, driving its popularity. It would be great to hear from other players about what makes Helldivers 2 stand out in the market!